The Errors of Political Punditry

Philip Tetlock at The Edge briefly reviews his 30 year study of political forecasting, upgrading his opinion from his 2005 book with the opinion that accurate predictions are possible in the near term, if you work hard at it. Here’s a summary: So, we found three basic things: many pundits were hardpressed to do better […]

Texas Welcomes International Election Monitors

The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) has opened a mission to monitor 2012 U.S. elections, the sixth time since 2002 that office has monitored U.S elections. The U.S. participates in the U.N.-based Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the parent organization of ODIHR, and has, again, invited the mission to […]

Or, Call It “The Post-Fact-Check Campaign”

The Rumpus, joining the chorus of outrage at the Republican’s increasing willingness to baldly lie, has called it the “Post-Fact-Check Campaign“. We should stick, I think, with calling it “Post-Truth” but still, this is good: That’s why the Romney campaign has been so open about their disdain for fact checkers. They can afford to be. […]

Parsing Ryan’s Lies

Vice-Presidential candidate has established himself as a liar* right out of the gate, and since we have some time before we vote we might oughtta take a try at winnowing something useful out of his lies. So, if asked about his personal best time running a marathon, when the candidate says “I had a two […]